As the readers of this blog well know, Oscar time is throw down time in Casa Lovely/Parry. With less than two months to go until this year’s Academy Awards (airing February 27^th), official movie watching has commenced. Each year, Entertainment Weekly’s 25 movies to see before the Oscars list gets hung up on our fridge, and the movies get scratched out with a red Sharpee as we wind our way through as many as possible. We’ve never hit all 25 movies, but in past years we’ve always been close. It all, of course, leads to our cut-throat contest (current reigning champ: me), where we secretly vote on each category and see who can predict the most winners.

This year, for some reason or another, we’ve gotten a pretty good head start; we’ve already watched 11 of the 25 movies. Below you will find opinions on and odds for these contenders.

Inception 

In one word: Over-rated

Inception was an average movie with a unique plot. It is easily understandable by anyone with the remotest sense of an intellect. I was largely disappointed, and I didn’t think about the movie at all after having watched it.

Chances for an Oscar: Little to no chance in any category other than special effects. It may get a Best Picture nomination based on its popularity.

The Social Network

In one word: Timely

There is some great dialogue in this movie, and the subject matter was very interesting (although I question the amount of truth present), but it wasn’t anything more than what I expected it to be. I feel like a movie that is popular because it is about something, like Facebook, that is so prevalent in culture needs to also affect the viewers’ opinions and make them question things around them. This movie was all about exposition; I didn’t really learn anything worthwhile.

Chances for an Oscar: High – This movie has won all the important awards so far. I think people like it because it’s all about such a “hip” topic. Whatever.  I did really like Jesse Eisenberg’s performance.  He’ll definitely be nominated for Best Actor. Best Screenplay and Best Director, will also be categories this movie shows in.

Black Swan

In one word: Trippy

This film turned out to be exactly what I was looking for – an intense, thought-provoking movie. My husband and I discussed this film more than any other. It was one of the only films that I had a real reaction to. As usual, Aronofksy blends reality and hallucination perfectly.

Chances for an Oscar: High – this will be another top contender. Natalie Portman really should win Best Actress. I can’t even imagine how much work went into this role. She pulled off bat-shit insane well. I would think it would also definitely be up for Best Director.

127 Hours 

In one word: Intense

Despite the fact that anyone going to see this movie already knows what’s going to happen, the suspense is riveting. You will sit on the edge of your chair with your hand over your mouth and your eyes half shut as you watch. The movie will remind you how incredibly weak you would be in any situation that remotely resembles Aron Ralston’s. Amazingly, I wasn’t bored for even a second watching a movie containing really only one character and taking place in one claustrophobic set.

Chances for an Oscar: Nominated for Best Picture, but no chance at a win. James Franco is the host of this year’s Oscars, and I suspect that his new-found popularity might lead him to a win as Best Actor.  Danny Boyle should get a Best Director nomination for what he did with so little.

The Town 

In one word: Affleck!

I really, really liked this movie. I also feel that it is the movie that would most appeal to the masses. I can’t imagine that anyone would dislike it. Interesting characters, as well as tons of action and suspense, make this movie compulsively watchable. My love/hate relationship with Ben Affleck has moved more towards a love/love relationship. Damn you, Affleck!

Chances for an Oscar: Affleck won’t pick up even a nomination for acting or directing, but he might pull one out for adapted screenplay. I would like to see this movie nominated for Best Picture, but it’s a tight race this year. Jeremy Renner has gotten a lot of buzz, and I’m sure he’ll get a well-deserved nom for Best Supporting Actor.

Toy Story 3 

In one word: Weep-fest

You know what’s crazy about this movie? I watched it immediately after watching Rabbit Hole (see below), and of the two, I wept uncontrollably only at Toy Story 3. Gah. Stupid children’s toys and growing up! Why does Pixar feel the need to make their audience cry so much?

Chances for an Oscar: Although I haven’t seen any of its competition yet, I can’t believe that any cartoon will beat TS3 for Best Animated Film. It will likely also be nominated for Best Picture.

The Kids Are All Right 

In one word: Over-hyped

I was completely unimpressed with this movie. It was good, but it wasn’t anything special. It is supposedly the movie that finally depicts a gay couple and their family in a completely natural way, but it seems odd to me that it has gotten all of its notoriety for this very reason. Frankly, I was bored at times when watching, and I thought the ending was completely disappointing.

Chances for an Oscar: This movie is a favorite with the critics. It will definitely be nominated for Best Picture, but I don’t think it will win. I’m sure it will have several acting nominations. Annette Bening was good, but I don’t think she was anywhere near Natalie Portman in Black Swan. If she wins, it will be because of Hollywood favoritism.

Winter's Bone 

In one word: Stark

This is a little-known film that your average moviegoer hasn’t even heard of.  Just the landscape of the movie – impoverished, rural middle America – is more desolate than any desert in 127 Hours.  Watching the main character of this film try to hold together a family in this environment is quite powerful. The story is interesting enough, the acting is fantastic, and in the end, there’s a scene that will stick with you for days.

Chances for an Oscar: I think this film will get a nomination for Best Picture, as well as a Best Actress nominee for Jennifer Lawrence – an amazing young actress. John Hawkes deserves a

Best Supporting Actor nomination for his portrayal of Teardrop, the best named character of the year.

Rabbit Hole 

In one word: Surprising

For a movie that really hasn’t gotten much attention, Rabbit Hole really surprised me – in a good way. I enjoyed it. It has just the right amount of dark humor and sadness. As a person who enjoys a film that will make me cry, I was surprised at how the story was more uplifting than depressing. Unlike the make-me-want-to-die Revolutionary Road from a few years back, this is a film about two people who survive tragedy and learn how to rebuild their lives.

Chances for an Oscar: I’m thinking it might not even get a Best Picture nom, but both Nicole Kidman and Aaron Eckhart deserve nominations.

(I have also seen Alice in Wonderland and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, two films on EW’s list of 25 must-see’s that I feel won’t make much of a splash at the Oscar’s. AiW will get a special effects nom and TGwtDT’s Noomi Rapace should get a Best Actress nom but sadly will not.)

We still have several films left in our queue to see (most excited for The King’s Speech), but that’s all for now! Let me know if you’ve seen any of the films above and what you thought about them. You still have over a month before the Oscars! Get viewing!